Construction of a Prediction Model for Adverse Psychological Trajectories in Postoperative Breast Cancer Patients Based on Evidence-based Medicine

AN Kunli; ZHAO Yang; TANG Lanqing; ZHANG Jie; LU Biao

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Journal of Hunan Normal University(Medical Science) ›› 2026, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (1) : 247-254.

Construction of a Prediction Model for Adverse Psychological Trajectories in Postoperative Breast Cancer Patients Based on Evidence-based Medicine

AN Kunli, ZHAO Yang, TANG Lanqing, ZHANG Jie, LU Biao

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Abstract

Objective The purpose is to explore the changing trajectory of adverse psychological reactions in postoperative breast cancer patients based on evidence-based nursing, construct a prediction model for adverse psychological reactions, and verify it. Methods A total of 451 patients who underwent breast cancer surgery in a tertiary grade A hospital from December 2021 to December 2024 were selected as the research subjects. The psychological data of the patients were collected at four time points, namely on the day of admission (T1), the first day after surgery (T2), the second day after surgery (T3), and the day of discharge (T4). The latent class growth model was used to identify the adverse psychological trajectory, and logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictive factors affecting the adverse psychological trajectory, and a risk prediction model was established. And the predictive ability of the model was tested through the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results The research consensus identified three different trajectories of psychological distress. It was determined that educational level, average monthly income per capita, medical treatment method, and disease stage were significant factors affecting psychological distress in postoperative breast cancer patients. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.821, the optimal cut-off value was 0.136, the sensitivity was 0.862, and the specificity was 0.831. The mean absolute error between the actual value and the predicted value of the prediction model was 0.021, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-fit test indicated that the model had a good fit. Conclusion Evidence-based nursing can effectively identify the psychological adverse trajectory in postoperative breast cancer patients. Through the predictive model it constructs, high-risk patients with poor psychological status after breast cancer surgery can be screened quickly, providing a reference for medical staff to adopt intervention measures in a timely manner and improve the mental health status of patients.

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breast cancer after the operation / negative psychological trajectory / predictive model / evidence-based nursing

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AN Kunli, ZHAO Yang, TANG Lanqing, ZHANG Jie, LU Biao. Construction of a Prediction Model for Adverse Psychological Trajectories in Postoperative Breast Cancer Patients Based on Evidence-based Medicine[J]. Journal of Hunan Normal University(Medical Science). 2026, 23(1): 247-254

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