Risk Factors and Predictive Model Construction of Recurrent Plastic Bronchitis in Children under 12 Years Old

MA Xiaopeng; TAN Xiaohong; LIU Tian; LI Xing zhen; XIE Kunxia; HAO Tingting

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Journal of Hunan Normal University(Medical Science) ›› 2025, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6) : 74-78.

Clinical Medicine

Risk Factors and Predictive Model Construction of Recurrent Plastic Bronchitis in Children under 12 Years Old

MA Xiaopeng¹, TAN Xiaohong², LIU Tian¹, LI Xing zhen¹, XIE Kunxia¹, HAO Tingting³

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Abstract

Objective To investigate the risk factors of recurrent plastic bronchitis in children under 12 years old and further construct a clinical prediction model to provide more reference for early identification of children at high risk of recurrence and follow-up diagnosis and treatment. Methods 111 children with plastic bronchitis diagnosed and treated in our hospital from January 2016 to January 2024 were retrospectively included and grouped according to whether children had recurrence or not after 8 weeks of follow-up. Univariate and multivariate analysis of the risk factors of recurrent plastic bronchitis in children under 12 years old. Construction of a risk prediction model for recurrence of plastic bronchitis in children under 12 years of age and analysis of its predictive efficacy. Results In this study, 38 of 111 children with plastic bronchitis relapsed, with a recurrence rate of 34.23%. The results of univariate analysis showed that the cumulative number of pulmonary lesions, the need for invasive ventilation after plastic removal, and the combination of multiple organ function injury were related to the recurrence of plastic bronchitis in children under 12 years old. Logistic multivariate analysis results confirmed that the number of lung lobe involved, whether invasive ventilation was required after plastic removal, and whether multiple organ function injury combined with extra pulmonary injury were independent factors influencing the recurrence risk of plastic bronchitis in children under 12 years old (P<0.05). The independent influencing factors in logistic regression model and the prediction probability of the regression model were used to predict the recurrence of plastic bronchitis in children under 12 years old. The area under the curve was 0.693, 0.669, 0.702 and 0.849, respectively. Conclusion The recurrence of plastic bronchitis in children under 12 years old may be related to the number of lung lobe involved, whether invasive ventilation is required for the first plastic removal, and whether it is complicated with extra pulmonary multiple organ function injury. The data model constructed by using the above three factors has shown good efficacy in predicting the recurrence of children, which is worthy of further analysis in our work.

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children / plastic bronchitis / recurrence / influencing factors / model

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MA Xiaopeng, TAN Xiaohong, LIU Tian, LI Xing zhen, XIE Kunxia, HAO Tingting. Risk Factors and Predictive Model Construction of Recurrent Plastic Bronchitis in Children under 12 Years Old[J]. Journal of Hunan Normal University(Medical Science). 2025, 22(6): 74-78

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