Development and validation of a prediction model of pressure injury in critically ill patients after cardiopulmonary bypass

DONG Zhenghui; LI Zhengang; WANG Yating; QI Jinfang

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Journal of Hunan Normal University(Medical Science) ›› 2023, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6) : 127-131.

Development and validation of a prediction model of pressure injury in critically ill patients after cardiopulmonary bypass

DONG Zhenghui¹, LI Zhengang^2,3, WANG Yating⁴, QI Jinfang^1,3

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Abstract

Objective To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting pressure injury in critically ill patients after cardiopulmonary bypass,which provides a theoretical basis for selecting a pressure injury prediction tool suitable for patients after ICU cardiopulmonary bypass. Methods A total of 268 patients after cardiopulmonary bypass admitted to ICU of a general hospital from January 2021 to December 2021 were eligible for the candidates of this study. General data,treatment parameters,laboratory results and other data were collected from the electric hospital information system. The logsitic regression analysis was performed to detect the risk factors and to develop a nomogram prediction model. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the prediction ability of the model. Results 1）108 patients developed pressure injury in ICU,the incidence of ICU,acquired pressure injury was approximately 40.29%.2）In logistic regression analysis,vasopressor inotropic score（OR=1.246）,duration of cardiopulmonary bypass（OR=1.015）,APACHEII（OR=1.142）and IL-6（OR=1.003）were identified as risk factors of pressure injury.3）The area under the curve of the model was 0.865,and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.907 and 0.780,respectively. The concordance index of the model was 0.916. Hosmer,lemeshow test：χ²=6.363, P=0.607. The calibration curve showed that it had a good consistency between the observed and actual probability. Conclusion The nomogram model has good predictive efficacy for pressure injury in ICU patients after cardiopulmonary bypass,which is helpful to identify patients with high risk of pressure injury.

Key words

critical care / cardiopulmonary bypass / pressure injury / nomogram

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DONG Zhenghui, LI Zhengang, WANG Yating, QI Jinfang. Development and validation of a prediction model of pressure injury in critically ill patients after cardiopulmonary bypass[J]. Journal of Hunan Normal University(Medical Science). 2023, 20(6): 127-131

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