基于多中心的儿童重症支原体肺炎早期筛查数据构建患儿预后的预测Nomogam 模型

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Abstract Objective To construct a Nomogam model for predicting prognosis based on multicenter data from early screening of severe mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) in children. Methods A total of 400 children with severe MPP admitted to Chengdu Seventh People's Hospital, Panzhihua Central Hospital, and Wenjiang Maternal and Child Health Hospital from December 2022 to January 2024 were gathered. Patients were randomly grouped into a modeling group (280 cases) and a validation group (120 cases) in a 7∶3 ratio (random number table method). According to the prognosis of the patients, the modeling group was separated into a good prognosis group and a poor prognosis group. The influencing factors for poor prognosis of severe MPP in children were analyzed using multiple logistic regression analysis. R software was applied to build the Nomogam model. ROC curve was plotted to evaluate the discrimination of the Nomogam model. Model consistency was applied to draw calibration curves for evaluation. Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was applied to evaluate the clinical application value of the model. Results Out of 280 children, 79 had poor prognosis, with an incidence rate of 28.21%. There were differences in age, PCT, IL-6, NLR, LDH, CRP, and IgM between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, PCT, IL-6, NLR, LDH, CRP, and IgM were risk factors for poor prognosis of severe MPP in children. The AUC of the modeling group and validation group was 0.974 and 0.967, and the slope of the calibration curve was close to 1, the H-L test showed χ²=7.021 and 6.984, P=0.742 and 0.698, indicating good consistency. DCA curve showed that when the probability of high-risk threshold was between 0.03 and 0.91, the model had high clinical value in predicting poor prognosis of severe MPP in children. Conclusion Age, PCT, IL-6, NLR, LDH, CRP, and IgM are factors influencing poor prognosis in children with severe MPP, and the column-line diagram model constructed in this way has good discrimination and consistency, and can be used to screen the risk of poor prognosis in children with severe MPP at an early stage.

Key words： severe mycoplasma pneumonia prognosis nomogam

Received: 26 June 2024

PACS:

R725

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	Articles by authors
	TAO Hong
	GUO Jiang
	ZHENG Jing
	YANG Mei
	ZHANG Shuiying
	SONG Yue

Cite this article:

TAO Hong,GUO Jiang,ZHENG Jing等. Constructing a Nomogam model for predicting prognosis based on multicenter data from early screening of severe mycoplasma pneumonia in children[J]. HuNan ShiFan DaXue XueBao(YiXueBan), 2024, 21(5): 101-106.

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http://yxb.hunnu.edu.cn/EN/ OR http://yxb.hunnu.edu.cn/EN/Y2024/V21/I5/101

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